Europe Rearms: Old Muscles, New Wounds

For decades, Europe treated defence spending like that dusty treadmill in the garage, something you vaguely acknowledge might be useful but hope you’ll never have to rely on. That complacency ended with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The continent woke up, looked around, and realised it had been leaning on the United States for protection like a lazy teenager expecting a ride to school.

Now, Europe is scrambling to rebuild its military muscles. Budgets are swelling, procurement pipelines are clogged with orders, and politicians are lining up to promise strength and self-reliance. But this isn’t the smooth, confident rise of a continent with a plan. It’s messy, rushed, and full of contradictions, a mix of genuine necessity and political theatre.

At its heart, Europe’s rearmament is about credibility. It’s a signal to Russia, to the United States, and even to itself that it can stand up on its own. But the road from decades of underinvestment to real, usable power is paved with financial strain, logistical headaches, and the usual national squabbling.

The Return of the Power Game

Russia’s war in Ukraine shattered the illusion that borders in Europe were fixed and untouchable. It wasn’t just a wake-up call; it was a gut punch. Suddenly, decades of post-Cold War defence cuts looked like wishful thinking. Since then, budgets have surged. Procurement offices are running like they’ve just been told the world ends next Tuesday.

And while Europe retools, the enemy at the gates isn’t exactly thriving either. Russia bet everything on red, and Ukraine had other ideas. Now Moscow stands at the table, digging through near-empty pockets while loudly insisting it’s still flush with chips. In the background, it’s quietly trying to sell its car to its Chinese mate, who, awkwardly, owns a slice of the casino. The performance continues, but the stakes are changing fast, and everyone can smell the bluff.

NATO has responded by resetting its targets, calling for member states to spend 5% of GDP on defence by 2035, with 3.5% dedicated to core military capabilities. That’s not just ambitious, it’s fantasy for most countries. Only Poland is even close to that mark, and the rest of Europe is still struggling to hit the old 2% benchmark without playing accounting games.

The question isn’t whether Europe needs to rearm, it’s how much of this is strategic planning, and how much is just throwing cash at shiny new toys to look busy.

National Rearmament Mood Swings

Germany: Big Talk, Bigger Gaps

Germany’s much-hyped Zeitenwende, or turning point, was supposed to overhaul the Bundeswehr and turn it into the backbone of European security. €100 billion was thrown into a special fund. Defence spending jumped to €86 billion in 2025, around 2.4% of GDP, with plans to nearly double that by 2029.

But the numbers hide some uncomfortable truths. The special fund will be drained by 2027, and a gaping annual shortfall of €20-30 billion looms on the horizon. The Bundeswehr’s readiness levels are still falling, partly because so much equipment has been shipped to Ukraine without proper replacements. Germany is essentially borrowing its way through this with €400 billion in debt over five years, but when your economy is already sluggish and constrained by constitutional debt rules, this feels less like a strategy and more like a countdown clock.

Poland: Buying Big, Hoping It Works

Poland, sitting right on NATO’s front line, isn’t waiting for permission. It’s throwing 4% of GDP at defence in 2024, rising to 4.7% in 2025, and aims to build the continent’s biggest land force by 2030. Its shopping list reads like a military superstore order: 1,100 K2 Black Panther and M1 Abrams tanks, artillery, rocket systems, helicopters, mostly from South Korea and the United States.

It’s impressive, but there’s a fine line between ambition and overreach. Poland’s plan is financed largely by off-budget funds and foreign loans, including $15 billion in U.S. credit since 2023. The logistics and personnel needed to operate this avalanche of hardware are massive. The strategy feels less like precision planning and more like panic buying, the military equivalent of grabbing everything on the shelf because you’re not sure what you’ll need.

France: Sovereignty Meets Street Protests

France, true to form, is pushing its old idea of strategic autonomy. It’s pouring €413 billion into defence between now and 2030, with a record €47.2 billion set for 2025. Fighter jets, naval upgrades, future combat systems, all to ensure Paris doesn’t have to rely on anyone else.

The problem? France is trying to ramp up military spending while its public debt is already 114% of GDP and the streets are still smouldering from protests over pension reforms and budget cuts. This isn’t a country with endless political patience. Macron can talk all he likes about sovereignty, but when the public sees billions going into fighter jets while services are cut, the backlash will be fierce.

UK: Global Ambitions with a Leaky Wallet

The UK still wants to play global policeman while keeping a strong European hand. It’s upping its defence budget to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, upgrading Challenger 2 tanks to Challenger 3s, and investing in the F-35 fleet. It’s also part of the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), building a next-gen fighter jet with Italy and Japan.

But the numbers are grim. There’s a £16.9 billion black hole in the UK Defence Equipment Plan, meaning much of the new spending will just go to plugging gaps rather than building new capacity. It’s ambition colliding with reality, Britain wants to be everywhere at once, but the budget suggests it’s barely keeping up with yesterday’s promises.

The Illusion of Strategic Autonomy

For all the talk of independence, Europe’s defence industry isn’t ready to stand alone. It’s too fragmented, too slow, and too small to meet the continent’s security needs. That’s why 80% of current rearmament spending still flows to the United States, South Korea, and other outside suppliers.

Poland’s massive tank orders? Mostly foreign. The UK’s jets? American. Even France, with all its talk of sovereignty, is tied into joint ventures. Europe wants autonomy, but what it has right now is outsourced urgency, buying its way out of trouble with the same partners it claims to want independence from.

Rearmed, but for What?

Europe is rearming at a pace it hasn’t seen in generations. But the process feels less like a carefully planned strategy and more like a chaotic trip to Costco. You walk in with a list, and before you know it, your trolley is piled high with things you didn’t think you needed, bulk packs of long-range missiles, stealth drones, next-gen tanks. It all seems sensible in the moment.

Then the bill arrives. Suddenly, you remember why you weren’t buying these things in the first place. Some governments treat the spending spree like a triumph, but someone always ends up staring at the receipt, wondering how to pay for it without gutting everything else. For some, it’s a gleeful patriotic moment. For others, it’s an unspoken fiscal nightmare waiting to hit home.

If Europe wants more than the appearance of strength, it needs to stop shopping for weapons like they’re on a limited-time sale and start asking what all this is really for. Is it deterrence? Is it independence? Or is it just political theatre designed to keep people from asking the harder questions?

Because one thing is certain: Europe’s last great illusion, that peace was guaranteed, is gone. What comes next will depend on whether this sudden spending spree leads to lasting capability, or just a very expensive receipt nobody knows how to pay.