China’s Moon Base: The Space Race Has Moved Off Planet

China says it will have people walking on the Moon by 2030. By 2035 they want a base at the south pole. By 2050 they talk about a full blown lunar network. Ambitious timelines, yes, but not quite the sci fi fantasy they once sounded like. They have already tested a lander called Lanyue in mock lunar terrain, launched Queqiao 2 as a communications relay, and knocked out sample return missions with their Chang’e program while most of us were distracted arguing about politics on social media.

The official term for this project is the International Lunar Research Station. It is billed as open to the world but in practice that world excludes the United States by law and includes a curious roster of partners like Russia, Venezuela, and Egypt. There is even talk of a 555 project which is meant to rally 50 countries, 500 institutions, and 5000 researchers under China’s banner. A lunar version of Belt and Road, except the road is dust, rocks, and the occasional moonquake.

Yes, moonquakes. Chinese scientists recently flagged 50 new landslide sites on the lunar surface triggered by seismic activity. Which is useful information if you plan to build houses on the rim of a crater and do not want them sliding away like poorly built coastal villas. The south pole has water ice, which makes it prime real estate, but it also has terrain that could swallow a lander whole if the engineers miscalculate.

Then there is the matter of power. Solar works, until the Moon spins away from the Sun and your billion dollar outpost turns into a very cold camping trip. So the plan is to bring along a nuclear reactor. Nothing says peace and cooperation quite like a small nuclear plant on a contested patch of lunar soil. The line between research station and military asset will be thinner than the oxygen supply in a Chinese made space suit.

None of this means the timelines will be met. They rarely are. But China is moving with a consistency that should worry anyone who thought the Apollo era was the end of history. Every Chang’e mission has ticked off another milestone. Chang’e 6 brought back samples from the far side in 2024. Chang’e 7 is due in 2026 to poke around the south pole. Chang’e 8 around 2029 will attempt in situ resource utilisation, otherwise known as the grand experiment of turning Moon dust into bricks before you run out of bricks.

The Americans still have Artemis, at least until the funding fights cut its legs out from under it. Europe dithers as always. Elon Musk will tweet something unhelpful. Meanwhile China builds relay satellites, lands test modules, signs up countries that cannot afford space programs of their own, and prepares to plug a nuclear reactor into the regolith.

It is tempting to see this as inspiring. Humanity expanding beyond its cradle. A new age of exploration. In reality it looks more like the Earth’s political disputes exported into orbit. Imagine Cold War Berlin but with worse food, no atmosphere, and a daily risk of micrometeoroids. The only question is whether the first base is a laboratory, a military outpost, or simply a propaganda trophy that leaks oxygen the moment the cameras are turned off.

What is certain is that the race is no longer theoretical. The Moon is no longer a flag planting stunt. The pieces are being put in place now. The next decade will decide who controls the only rock we have ever dreamed of colonising. If you thought the fight over rare earth metals was nasty, wait until the argument over who gets to own the ice at Shackleton Crater.

In the end China may succeed, or it may fail spectacularly. But either way the rest of us will be watching from Earth with our necks craned upwards. Just like always.