Today might be a time for cautious optimism. Not since the days preceding the Russian invasion back in 2022 have we been closer to an agreement to stop the bloodshed.
The question many will be asking is: how is this any different from the previous peace deals that have been floated? Well, this one is apparently 90% to 95% agreed. That is potentially good news for Ukraine and Russia, but almost certainly not for Putin.
The Deal: A Transaction of Survival
Ukraine looks set to cede 17% to 20% of its territory by freezing the front lines in their current position. The core of this is a simple transaction: survival for geography. It’s like amputating a trapped limb. It is painful, but ultimately a solution to prevent further suffering.
While the loss of land is a hard pill to swallow, the deal isn’t all bad. The USA will provide security guarantees, and this component is described as being 100% finalized. The agreement includes a snap-back clause for military intervention should Russia break the ceasefire. Effectively, Putin has been handed a worst-case outcome versus his initial intentions of a crippled, defenseless Ukraine.
The USA has also mentioned boots on the ground in negotiations, potentially including US, UK, and EU troops. This ensures any resource deals are protected, but it also makes it virtually impossible for Russia to rearm and rejoin the conflict without facing a much tougher opponent.
To top this off, the deal creates a 15-year protection window. Why 15 years? Well, who do you think will be long gone by the time that period has passed? It provides a window to repair relations without either side losing face, or perhaps just enough time for the Kremlin’s current architecture to crumble.
The Mineral Equalization
For Putin, this deal is partially the result of his own miscalculations. While he may have hoped for total capitulation, he repeatedly overplayed his hand. The CIA has now managed to remove the wool from the White House’s eyes, specifically regarding false flags like the Valdai incident, shifting the response from initial concern to skepticism.
The result? The free lunch is over. President Trump has leveraged nearly $375.8 billion in past military aid to demand equalization through access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth. We’re talking about a $500 billion deal for rare earth minerals like lithium and titanium, which are vital for decoupling the West from Chinese supply chains. Putin isn’t just losing a war; he’s losing the long-term economic leverage of the very ground he’s standing on.
Internal Stability: A Vacuum of Credibility
The recent drone attack on Putin’s residence has been labelled a crude false flag operation intended to gain leverage. What we are seeing from Russia is old moves replayed again and again, as if they are genuinely running out of ideas.
Internally, data suggests 70% of Russians favor the war, but 66% also favor peace talks. Take that with a barrel of salt. The regime is suffering from a vacuum of credibility. When people stop believing the official party line, like the 91 drones that local residents never even heard, the party doesn’t have a long shelf life.
Peace in Our Time?
The important part isn’t just if a deal can be made, but what happens once the ink has dried.
For Ukraine, the peace dividend will be significant. A people united by a shared victory are a thing to behold. In terms of industrial opportunity and national identity, Ukraine looks set for unparalleled growth. Putin set out to conquer a divided nation; instead, he has been the unlikely father to the birth of a unified, NATO-aligned power on his doorstep.
On the other side of the wire, Russia faces a contrasting reality. The cost of the 3-day operation is now 1.2 to 1.5 million dead or injured. The professional military has been replaced by a battered mobilized force. When these men arrive home to a broken social contract and $60 oil prices, the ingredients for stability will be non-existent.
Irony is a cruel mistress. Putin tried to resurrect the Soviet Empire. Instead, he has normalized a broken state topped with heavy-handed control. A peace deal in this conflict will be the beginning of the end for Putin, and he almost certainly knows it.