On the Eve of Quantum Computing

August 2, 2025

brown and black abstract painting

Humanity’s been staring down the road for the next bus of progress ever since the Wright brothers figured out gravity is more of a suggestion than a law. Once we left the ground, the planet got smaller. Time got cheaper. And now the next “bus” is turning up with the engine screaming, the headlights blazing, and absolutely no interest in slowing down for the stop.

It’s not one thing either. It’s two. AI is already in the room with us. It’s in your inbox, your spreadsheets, your camera roll, your customer service chats, your kids’ homework. Sometimes it helps. Sometimes it quietly replaces the need for the help in the first place.

The other one is quantum computing. Fewer people clock it because it still feels like lab coats, sealed rooms, and tech demos that look like someone’s built a chandelier to annoy physics. That’s exactly why it’s dangerous. It’s the kind of technology that looks academic right up until the day it stops being academic.

Normal computers run on bits. Zero or one. On or off. Simple. Brutally effective. Quantum machines use qubits. A qubit can sit in a kind of smeared state where it behaves like zero and one at the same time. That’s superposition. It’s not “doing two things at once” in the way a marketing deck claims. It’s a fundamentally different way of holding information, and when you scale it, the number of possibilities a quantum system can represent grows insanely fast.

Then you get entanglement. Qubits can become linked in a way that makes them behave like parts of one system even when separated. Einstein called it spooky action at a distance, which is a very polite way of saying “this feels illegal”.

And the real trick is interference. Quantum computing isn’t valuable because it can explore loads of possibilities. The value is that it can steer probability. It amplifies the paths that matter and cancels the ones that do not. It’s like running a million parallel guesses and then rigging the outcome so the good guesses survive the wave and the bad ones get washed out.

So what does that buy us in the real world, beyond scientists grinning like they’ve seen behind the curtain.

Chemistry. Materials. Drug discovery. The boring sounding stuff that decides whether you live longer, whether batteries stop being chunky bricks, whether fertiliser gets cleaner, whether industrial processes stop wasting half the planet’s energy as heat. A lot of this work today is brute force approximation. We simulate what we can. We guess the rest. Quantum computing targets the parts we currently cannot simulate properly.

Optimisation is another goldmine. Logistics, supply chains, routing, scheduling, investment portfolio balancing, air traffic management. These are problems where the search space explodes and the “best” answer is buried under a mountain of almost best answers. Quantum approaches are not magic wands, but they are built for landscapes like this.

Then there’s encryption. The locks on the internet are not eternal. A large enough fault tolerant quantum computer threatens widely used public key crypto. That’s not sci fi. It’s maths. It forces a global migration towards post quantum cryptography and quantum safe approaches, because a future machine breaking today’s secrets doesn’t need to time travel. It just needs someone to hoover up encrypted traffic now and decrypt it later when the hardware catches up. NIST has already moved from theory to shipping standards here, which should tell you this isn’t a pub conversation anymore: NIST’s first post quantum encryption standards.

Quantum also has a long list of problems. Qubits are fragile. Noise ruins everything. Error correction is hard and expensive. The machines need extreme conditions. A lot of setups live at temperatures so cold they make Antarctica look like a spa weekend. The software stack is immature. The talent pool is small. Progress is real, but it’s uneven, and anyone selling “quantum is here next Tuesday” is trying to sell you something.

Now add AI.

This is where it stops being a niche technology story and starts feeling like a systems story.

AI already eats data and turns it into prediction, pattern, automation. Quantum offers a way to accelerate certain classes of computation that AI would love to chew through faster, especially in simulation heavy domains and complex optimisation. At the same time, AI can help quantum systems. It can assist with error mitigation, control strategies, circuit design, and finding usable routes through a problem space that is too large to navigate by hand.

People talk about this pairing like it’s a superhero crossover episode. It’s more like two industrial machines bolted together. The output is power. The input is whoever owns the machines. Labs and giants are openly building towards that direction now, like Google Quantum AI pushing hard on the road to error corrected computation.

That’s the part everyone dances around.

If you outsource more thinking to machines, you don’t just gain convenience. You lose practice. We already did the first round of this trade without noticing. Navigation apps weakened our internal maps. Autocomplete softened our spelling. Search killed the need to remember. AI takes a bigger bite because it reaches into judgement, writing, planning, analysis, creativity. It doesn’t just carry the bags. It starts choosing the destination.

Some people hear that and immediately go full doomer. I’m not there. The upside is real. Better medicine. Faster science. Safer systems. Less waste. Less friction. More capability for small teams. That matters.

The problem is who gets the upside first, and who gets managed by it.

Give this combo to a company with an optimisation obsession and it will optimise you. Your time, your attention, your spending, your behaviour. Give it to governments with surveillance appetites and they won’t suddenly discover restraint. They’ll discover efficiency. Prediction gets sharper. Social graph analysis gets deeper. Pattern detection becomes policy. You don’t need evil masterminds for this. You just need incentives and tools.

Even the security agencies are basically standing there waving a fluorescent warning flag about the transition era, because the implications are so obvious you can’t ignore them forever. If you want a taste of that tone, read the NSA’s post quantum cybersecurity resources.

A new divide forms when the people with access to these systems can model reality faster than everyone else. They can simulate outcomes, test strategies, shape markets, shape narratives, shape labour. The rest of the population becomes legible. Legible turns into manageable. Manageable turns into controlled, gently at first, then as a default setting.

This is one of those moments where history rhymes without putting on a costume. Literacy once separated the empowered from the powerless. Industrial machinery did it again. Digital networks did it again. AI plus quantum can do it at a scale that feels quiet until it feels permanent.

So yes, progress is coming. It’s loud. It’s fast. It’s impressive. It’s also a governance problem, an ownership problem, and a human meaning problem.

The bus is already moving.

The only part still up for negotiation is who’s in the driver’s seat, and who’s strapped to the back like extra luggage.

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